The Demeter Ag Aggregate (DAA) universe tracks 123 listed agricultural companies worldwide. This monthly bulletin analyses the themes present in their public disclosures. The bulletin measures how the share of DAA companies flagging each theme over the trailing twelve months compares with the prior twelve, and whether it is presented as a headwind or a tailwind to the business.
| Δ share of companies | Theme | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | +16.4 pp | Geopolitical Tensions Impacting Commodity Prices | ██████████ |
| ▲ | +13.1 pp | Strong Consumer Demand Growth | ████████ |
| ▲ | +12.3 pp | U.S. Tariffs Impacting Trade | ████████ |
| ▲ | +9.0 pp | Inflationary Cost Pressures | ██████ |
| ▼ | -8.2 pp | Russia-Ukraine Conflict Supply Chain Disruptions | █████ |
| ▲ | +7.4 pp | Middle East Conflict Supply Chain Disruptions | █████ |
| ▲ | +7.4 pp | Strong Demand Supporting Prices | █████ |
| ▼ | -4.9 pp | Improved Market Conditions for Key Crops | ███ |
Geopolitical Tensions Impacting Commodity Prices posted the largest year-over-year gain across the DAA universe, rising +16.4 pp to become the single biggest mover in the trailing twelve months ended 2026-07-31. Strong Consumer Demand Growth followed closely at +13.1 pp, while U.S. Tariffs Impacting Trade added +12.3 pp — the three fastest-rising themes all falling within geopolitical or demand-side categories.
# Biggest Movers
Geopolitical and demand-side themes dominated the risers; the sharpest declines came from conflict-specific supply chain topics and crop-condition narratives.
- Geopolitical Tensions Impacting Commodity Prices (+16.4 pp) — the fastest-rising theme across the DAA universe.
- Strong Consumer Demand Growth (+13.1 pp) — the second-fastest riser.
- U.S. Tariffs Impacting Trade (+12.3 pp) — the third-fastest riser.
- Inflationary Cost Pressures (+9.0 pp) — the highest-climbing cost-side theme.
- Middle East Conflict Supply Chain Disruptions (+7.4 pp) — rising even as the Ukraine-related equivalent fell.
- Russia-Ukraine Conflict Supply Chain Disruptions (−8.2 pp) — the steepest decline of any theme tracked.
- Improved Market Conditions for Key Crops (−4.9 pp) — the sharpest drop among agricultural market trend themes.
# Notable Flips
Eight themes reversed their prevailing headwind/tailwind orientation year-over-year.
Flipped to mostly tailwind
- Cocoa Bean Price Volatility — headwind share 95% → 37%.
- Biodiesel Market Dynamics — headwind share 67% → 11%.
- Asia-Pacific Operating Income Dynamics — headwind share 64% → 32%.
- Diversified Fresh Produce Revenue Trends — headwind share 58% → 29%.
- Foreign Exchange Losses Impact — headwind share 64% → 36%.
Flipped to mostly headwind
- Natural Gas Cost Impact — headwind share 33% → 79%.
- Brazilian Real Appreciation Impact — headwind share 44% → 79%.
- Rising Feed Ingredient Costs — headwind share 38% → 67%.
All percentages are measured against the 123 covered DAA companies, not the industry as a whole.
# Disclosure Spotlight
Cocoa bean prices have come down significantly… with prices 30% lower since the start of our fiscal year and even falling below 4,000 GBP last week… The forward curve is now in a flat to slight carry structure… This contrasts with the steep backwardation we saw in the market this time last year, which significantly increased the rolling costs associated with our hedging.
— Barry Callebaut AG, earnings call, 2026-05-25
# Below the line
Shifts that did not make this month's report:
- U.S. Dollar Strength Impact: +4.9 pp
- Rising Ocean Freight Costs: +4.9 pp
- Infrastructure Demand Growth: -4.9 pp
- Raw Material Cost Pressures: +4.9 pp
- Impact Of New Labour Codes: +4.9 pp
- Australian Drought Impact on Sales: +4.9 pp
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