The Demeter Ag Aggregate (DAA) universe tracks 123 listed agricultural companies worldwide. This monthly bulletin analyses the themes present in their public disclosures. The bulletin measures how the share of DAA companies flagging each theme over the trailing twelve months compares with the prior twelve, and whether it is presented as a headwind or a tailwind to the business.
| Δ share of companies | Theme | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | +19.7 pp | Geopolitical Tensions Impacting Commodity Prices | ██████████ |
| ▲ | +14.8 pp | Middle East Conflict Supply Chain Disruptions | ███████ |
| ▲ | +12.3 pp | Strong Consumer Demand Growth | ██████ |
| ▲ | +10.7 pp | U.S. Tariffs Impacting Trade | █████ |
| ▲ | +9.8 pp | Inflationary Cost Pressures | █████ |
| ▼ | -8.2 pp | Russia-Ukraine Conflict Supply Chain Disruptions | ████ |
| ▲ | +8.2 pp | Strong Demand Supporting Prices | ████ |
| ▲ | +6.6 pp | Impact Of New Labour Codes | ███ |
Geopolitical risk is the fastest-rising topic in DAA-company disclosures over the trailing twelve months: the share of companies flagging Geopolitical Tensions Impacting Commodity Prices rose by +19.7 pp, the largest single move recorded this cycle. Three of the seven biggest movers belong to geopolitical or trade-related theme clusters, while one legacy conflict theme has receded.
# Biggest movers
Geopolitical and trade themes dominate the risers; Russia-Ukraine supply-chain concern is the lone meaningful decliner.
- Geopolitical Tensions Impacting Commodity Prices (+19.7 pp) — the fastest-rising theme across the DAA universe.
- Middle East Conflict Supply Chain Disruptions (+14.8 pp) — second-fastest riser, within the Geopolitical Supply Chain Risks cluster.
- Strong Consumer Demand Growth (+12.3 pp) — third-fastest riser, within the Agricultural Economic Pressures cluster.
- U.S. Tariffs Impacting Trade (+10.7 pp) — fourth-fastest riser, also within Geopolitical Supply Chain Risks.
- Inflationary Cost Pressures (+9.8 pp) — rising within Cost Pressure Dynamics.
- Strong Demand Supporting Prices (+8.2 pp) — rising within Agricultural Economic Pressures alongside the consumer demand theme.
- Russia-Ukraine Conflict Supply Chain Disruptions (−8.2 pp) — the only notable decliner; the fastest-falling theme this period.
# Notable flips
Eight themes crossed the headwind/tailwind midpoint year-over-year.
Flipped to mostly tailwind
- Biodiesel Market Dynamics — headwind share 68% → 6%
- Cocoa Bean Price Volatility — headwind share 95% → 37%
- Oilseed Crushing Margins — headwind share 61% → 27%
- Asia-Pacific Operating Income Dynamics — headwind share 64% → 32%
Flipped to mostly headwind
- GST Compliance Penalties — headwind share 38% → 82%
- New Zealand Consumer Foodservice Challenges — headwind share 11% → 54%
- Brazilian Real Appreciation Impact — headwind share 44% → 80%
- Rising Feed Ingredient Costs — headwind share 38% → 73%
All percentages are measured against the 123 covered DAA companies, not the industry as a whole.
# Disclosure spotlight
Cocoa bean prices have come down significantly … with prices 30% lower since the start of our fiscal year and even falling below 4,000 GBP last week … The forward curve is now in a flat to slight carry structure … the cost of buying cocoa today is the same or cheaper than buying cocoa in the future. This contrasts with the steep backwardation we saw … which significantly increased the rolling costs associated with our hedging.
— Barry Callebaut AG, earnings call, 2026-05-25
# Below the line
Shifts that did not make this month's report:
- Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility: +6.6 pp
- Steel And Zinc Price Volatility: +5.7 pp
- Rising Ocean Freight Costs: +5.7 pp
- Adverse Weather Impact on Soybeans: -5.7 pp
- Commodity Price Volatility: +4.9 pp
- Raw Material Cost Fluctuations: +4.9 pp
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