Production Forecasts

Production forecasts across crops, regions and marketing years.

Demeter publishes production forecasts with weekly updates, calibrated uncertainty bands that evolve through the season, and a decade of forecast backtests.

2Headline forecasts92% → 97%Accuracy rangeLast print17 Sep 2026

Forecast Explorer

Weekly forecast path by marketing year. The shaded band indicates the error margin at each point in time.

Production forecasts

Latest published weekly print for each forecast, by marketing year.

FC-ALM-ES
In preview

Spain Almond Production

Live publication from 28 September 2026.

How forecasts are built

Forecasts are produced bottom-up from orchard-level data, observed growing conditions and independent checks before publication.

METHODOLOGY
STEP 01

Build the orchard base

Map every orchard with location, area, age and production class, including historical footprint and in-season removals.

STEP 02

Model growing conditions

Combine orchard-level baselines with observed growing conditions, including the Demeter Growing Season Indices, and calibrate on historical outcomes.

STEP 03

Validate & publish

Validate the model with independent signals (including ground stations, crop health and partner inputs), assign a range, and publish point-in-time updates.

Forecast publication schedule

Latest and next weekly print for each forecast, with the current band and live status.

Forecast Latest print Next print Band Status

Forecast downloads & licensing

Forecast history is available in CSV on request. Licensing is required for institutional and third-party distribution use cases.

ACCESS

Historical forecast CSV · on request

Receive historical weekly forecast prints in CSV format for research and internal analysis.

Request forecast CSV →

Platform access & licensing

Access live weekly forecast feeds and licensing terms for institutional workflows and third-party software.

Contact for terms →

Demeter publishes indices and forecasts for reference and research purposes. It is not an authorised benchmark administrator under UK BMR, does not administer a regulated benchmark, and does not offer, recommend, or arrange financial products. The hedging workbench is for illustration; it produces no quotes or offers. Contracts are written by independent risk partners, with whom buyers contract directly.