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Heat stress here means summer hours above 30 °C. Measure exposure by how fast those hours have risen at each grove since 2000, and split the groves into quarters from slowest to fastest?

Groves planted before 1990 make up 1.5 million of the 2.4 million ha.

Half the olive area planted since 2017 sits where summer heat is rising slowest, against a fifth of the pre-1990 groves.

The district is small enough that its orchards share almost the same weather. Rank the weather against the 614 same-age almond orchards across Beja instead?

It ranks top of 45 for canopy vigour and chlorophyll and second for moisture, but between 36th and 41st for evenness across the orchard. Among Beja peers its warmth, winter chill and heat stress are all middling, so weather doesn’t explain the lead.

Measure ramp-up as the canopy reached by the third and fourth season after planting, and minimal frost as no spring frost in the last ten years?

23 orchards, 354 ha. Frost barely separates them: 89 of the 90 had no spring frost in 2016–25, so ramp-up does the sorting.

Düzce had 57 frost hours: five times a typical April, and the most since 2000. Sakarya had its second-worst April. Further east, inland Samsun, Ordu, Giresun and Trabzon all had more frost than usual, but less than in April 2004. The coast had none.

The north-east half has been the weakest ground since the first full season, and the south-west the strongest. The pattern has barely moved: maps of 2018–21 and 2022–26 look alike. The summer gap between the strongest and weakest tenth of the orchard has widened by three quarters since 2021.