Spain Almond Production Forecast
Forecast path
Weekly forecast path by marketing year. The shaded band indicates the error margin at each point in time.
The Spain Almond Production Forecast is Demeter's estimate of the national almond crop for a given marketing year. It is constructed bottom-up from the country's almond orchards, taking into account age, weather, water availability and condition, and is calibrated against the official production record published by the Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación (MAPA).
The chart shows the season's forecast path. Each point is the estimate as it stood on that date, and the shaded band is the range that reflects the method's measured historical error at that point in the season. Once MAPA publishes the season's figure it appears on the chart as the outturn line.
Values are published in thousand tonnes in-shell, the MAPA basis, with a kernel equivalent at a flat 30% crack-out. The unit switcher shows kernel or in-shell, in tonnes or pounds. The methodology describes how the forecast is constructed, validated and published, and its track record since 2015.
What does FC-ALM-ES forecast?
The national almond crop of Spain for a marketing year. It is expressed in thousand tonnes in-shell, on the same basis as the official figure published by the Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación (MAPA), together with a kernel equivalent at a flat 30% crack-out.
How is the forecast built?
Bottom-up from the country's almond orchards. Each orchard carries its location, area, age and production class, and small traditional orchards that cannot be mapped individually are carried as a separate stratum sized from the official area record. Growing conditions enter through the variables of the Demeter Almond Season Index - Spain (DASI-S), and the model is calibrated on the MAPA production record. Independent checks, including a national network of ground weather stations, are applied before publication. The methodology sets this out in full.
What does the shaded band mean?
The range within which the final figure is expected to fall, given the method's measured error at that point in the season. Accuracy is measured by leaving each year out in turn, re-fitting the model without it and scoring the prediction against the actual figure. At the start of the crop year the prints rest on the orchard base and the previous season's outturn alone, and the band is wide. It narrows as bloom and growing conditions are observed.
How accurate has it been?
Applied retrospectively to every season since 2015, the method's mean absolute error against the MAPA figure is 8.7%, measured with the full growing season observed. The year-by-year track record is published in the methodology.
How often is it updated?
Prints are generated as new information arrives, and the weekly print is published here on the season's seven-day grid. Each print carries its as-of date and model version, and the chart shows each week's estimate as it stood on the day.
What is the outturn line?
The official MAPA production figure for that marketing year, once published. It is drawn as a dotted line so the season's forecast path can be read against the realised outcome.
Can I get the data?
Historical weekly prints are available in CSV on request, and live feeds are available through the Demeter platform under licence. Contact [email protected].
Related data
Indices and forecasts covering the same crop and region.
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