Portugal Almond Production Forecast

The national almond crop of Portugal for a marketing year. It is expressed in thousand tonnes in-shell, on the same basis as the official figure published by the Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE), together with a kernel equivalent at a flat 30% crack-out.

Bottom-up from every almond orchard in the country. Each orchard carries its location, area, age and production class. Growing conditions enter through the Demeter Almond Season Index - Portugal (DASI-P), and the model is calibrated on the INE production record. Independent checks, including statistics provided by Portugal Nuts, are applied before publication. The methodology sets this out in full.

The range within which the final figure is expected to fall, given the method's measured error at that point in the season. Accuracy is measured by leaving each year out in turn, re-fitting the model without it and scoring the prediction against the actual figure. At the start of the crop year the prints rest on the orchard base alone and the band is wide. It narrows as bloom and growing conditions are observed.

Applied retrospectively to every season since 2017, the method's mean absolute error against the final INE figure is 8.3%, measured at the last print before harvest. The year-by-year track record is published in the methodology.

Prints are generated as new information arrives, and the weekly print is published here on the season's seven-day grid. Each print carries its as-of date and model version, and the chart shows each week's estimate as it stood on the day.

The official INE production figure for that marketing year, once published. It is drawn as a dotted line so the season's forecast path can be read against the realised outcome.

Historical weekly prints are available in CSV on request, and live feeds are available through the Demeter platform under licence. Contact [email protected].