California Almond Production Forecast
Demeter's weekly forecast of the California almond crop.
Forecast path
Weekly forecast path by marketing year. The shaded band indicates the error margin at each point in time.
The California Almond Production Forecast is Demeter's estimate of the state's almond crop for a given marketing year. It is constructed bottom-up from every almond orchard in the state, taking into account age, weather, water availability and condition, and is calibrated against the official production record published by the United States Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
The chart shows the season's forecast path. Each point is the estimate as it stood on that date, and the shaded band is the range that reflects the method's measured historical error at that point in the season. Once NASS publishes the season's figure it appears on the chart as the outturn line.
Values are published in billion pounds, the NASS basis. The unit switcher shows kernel or in-shell, in pounds or tonnes. The
What does FC-ALM-CA forecast?
The California almond crop for a marketing year. It is expressed in billion pounds, on the same basis as the production total published by the United States Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
How is the forecast built?
Bottom-up from every almond orchard in the state. Each orchard carries its location, county, age and condition, with bearing acreage measured from satellite imagery each summer. Growing conditions enter through the Demeter Almond Season Index (DASI), and the model is calibrated on the NASS county and state production series. Independent checks, including the Almond Board of California's monthly position reports, are applied before publication. The methodology sets this out in full.
What does the shaded band mean?
The range within which the final figure is expected to fall, given the method's measured error at that point in the season. Accuracy is measured by leaving each year out in turn, re-fitting the model without it and scoring the prediction against the actual figure. At the start of the crop year the prints rest on the orchard base alone and the band is wide. It narrows as bloom and growing conditions are observed.
How accurate has it been?
Applied retrospectively to every season since 2016, the method's mean absolute error against the final NASS figure is 3.4%, measured at the last print before harvest. Prints continue after harvest as delivery data accumulates and converge on the official figure. The year-by-year track record is published in the methodology.
How often is it updated?
Prints are generated as new information arrives, and the weekly print is published here on the season's seven-day grid. Each print carries its as-of date and model version, and the chart shows each week's estimate as it stood on the day.
What is the outturn line?
The official NASS production figure for that marketing year, once published. It is drawn as a dotted line so the season's forecast path can be read against the realised outcome.
Can I get the data?
Historical weekly prints are available in CSV on request, and live feeds are available through the Demeter platform under licence. Contact [email protected].
Related data
Indices and forecasts covering the same crop and region.
More about Almonds
- Demeter Almond Season IndexIndex
- Portugal Almond Production ForecastForecast
More about California
- Demeter Almond Season IndexIndex
- Demeter Pistachio Season IndexIndex
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Forecast history is available in CSV on request. Licensing is required for institutional and third-party distribution use cases.
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