# 1. Executive summary
The California Almond Production Forecast is an estimate of the state's almond crop for a given marketing year, produced by Demeter. It is constructed bottom-up from every almond orchard in the state and takes into account age, weather, water availability, condition and a range of other metrics. It is calibrated against the official production record published by the United States Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and cross-checked against the delivery statistics published by the Almond Board of California. It is expressed in pounds. It is published with a range that reflects the method's measured historical error.
The forecast is published as a point-in-time estimate. It reflects all the information available on the date it is issued and is updated as the season progresses. Applied retrospectively to every season since 2016, the method's average error against the final NASS figure is 3.4%, measured at the last print before harvest. Further detail on historical accuracy is provided below.
# 2. Design principles
Bottom-up construction. The forecast starts from a registry of every standing almond orchard in the state, each with its own estimated planting year and location. It does not employ a sampling methodology, grower surveys or top-down trend extrapolation. State production is the sum of the expected production of each orchard.
Pounds of crop as the goal. The forecast outputs a number of pounds. Yield per acre is modelled for each county and multiplied by the bearing acreage measured for the season, and yields are reported only as a derived quantity.
Tailored to the region. The core methodology builds on Demeter's experience forecasting production in other crops and regions, but each input is validated independently for its contribution to accuracy in California specifically. The level is fitted to the official county and state production series. Some inputs are unique to California, including the industry's monthly delivery statistics.
Point-in-time and like-for-like. The current season is compared with historical seasons over the same calendar window. A forecast issued in March compares bloom-to-date inputs in the most recent year with bloom-to-date inputs in every prior year.
Transparent on accuracy and validation approach. Every published figure carries its range. The method's track record is disclosed in this document and elsewhere. Accuracy is measured by leaving each year out in turn, re-fitting the model without it, and scoring the prediction against the actual figure.
# 3. Conceptual framework
The forecast combines three layers. The first two feed the model, while the third is a set of independent checks applied before publication.
| Layer | Input captured | Source | Update frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Orchard base | Location and size of each orchard, its county and its age; its current and prior health; orchards removed, abandoned or otherwise degraded; historical footprint in each past year | Satellite imagery, state crop mapping | Annually, with in-season removal monitoring |
| 2. Growing conditions | The season's weather relative to history, as measured by the relevant Demeter Growing Season Index | Hourly meteorological data reanalysis | Daily |
| 3. Independent checks | Industry delivery statistics, crop health, sentiment, qualitative and ad hoc quantitative checks | Various | In-season |
# 3.1 The orchard base
The full extent of the state's orchard footprint is compiled, and validated by Demeter. Each orchard is labelled with its county and with its year of planting, or a range of years if a precise determination cannot be made. In California these labels cover a period considerably in excess of 20 years.
The orchard base also reconstructs orchards that stood in earlier years but have since been removed, so that each historical season is modelled on the orchard base that actually existed at the time. This considerably improves the accuracy of forecasting models. Bearing acreage for the current season is measured directly from satellite imagery each summer.
Each county is assigned a baseline yield derived from its own history. This baseline is the level from which deviations are estimated based on conditions in the current and prior seasons.
# 3.2 Growing conditions
Growing conditions are captured through their effect on the Demeter Almond Season Index (DASI). This index is available at the level of each orchard and allows the model to incorporate the influence of weather in both the current and prior season.
DASI is calibrated on 25 years of California weather conditions and captures the variables that consistently affect yield outcomes, quality and cost of production. Further information on DASI is available on its
# 3.3 Independent checks
The output of the model is validated against a range of instruments that do not feed the model directly. These are intended as a sense-check against conditions on the ground and serve primarily to move the headline figure within its error range. After harvest, the industry's cumulative delivery statistics influence the model as deliveries accumulate.
Examples include an ongoing health monitor on all orchards in the productive base and a number of sentiment channels. Independent checks include the Almond Board of California's monthly position reports.
Not all independent checks are relevant at all stages in the season, and their impact is most important in "outlier" years. The list varies over time and is not disclosed in its entirety.
# 4. Forecast construction
Orchard-level forecasts are summed into counties. County totals are used for internal diagnostic purposes but are not published.
Counties are summed to a state figure, which is the source of the headline publication.
The specific baseline yields, channel weights, calibration values and full list of independent checks are proprietary to Demeter and are not disclosed.
# 5. Track record
The forecasting method has been applied retrospectively to every season since 2016. This is the first season for which high-resolution satellite observation of every orchard is available.
Each year's estimate is produced out of sample: the model is calibrated without that year, then asked to predict it.
| Year | Bearing acreage (thousand acres, NASS) | Actual production (billion lb, NASS) | Estimate (billion lb) | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 970 | 2.140 | 2.173 | +1.5% |
| 2017 | 1,030 | 2.270 | 2.139 | −5.8% |
| 2018 | 1,090 | 2.280 | 2.257 | −1.0% |
| 2019 | 1,180 | 2.560 | 2.509 | −2.0% |
| 2020 | 1,250 | 3.115 | 3.096 | −0.6% |
| 2021 | 1,310 | 2.935 | 3.027 | +3.1% |
| 2022 | 1,350 | 2.580 | 2.706 | +4.9% |
| 2023 | 1,380 | 2.455 | 2.312 | −5.8% |
| 2024 | 1,380 | 2.730 | 2.888 | +5.8% |
| 2025 | 1,400 | 2.715 | 2.818 | +3.8% |
| 2026 | 1,376 | 2.694 |
Mean absolute error: 88 million pounds, or 3.4%.
The error above is measured at the last print before harvest, with the full growing season observed. Prints issued earlier in the season carry wider uncertainty. Prints issued after harvest incorporate the industry's delivery statistics and converge on the official figure, so their error is smaller than the figure quoted here. At the start of the crop year, for example, they rest on the orchard base alone. Uncertainty narrows as the season progresses.
# 6. Definitions
Pounds The headline figure is published in pounds on the same basis as the official NASS production total to facilitate comparison.
Bearing age Refers to orchards in their third year after planting and older, consistent with the NASS definition.
# 7. Governance, updates and scoring
The forecast is maintained by Demeter's crop forecasting team. Its model specification is versioned; the 2026/27 marketing year is served under version v2. Coefficients are re-fitted whenever NASS publishes a new annual figure. The specification changes only between marketing years, with advance notice and with the historical series restated for comparability.
Prints are generated on an ongoing basis as new information arrives. The most recent forecast is always available
# 8. Further information
For methodology enquiries, please contact Demeter at [email protected].
Information and current values for all of Demeter's forecast and index products are available on the