In partnership with Portugal Nuts, Demeter has released its almond production forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year. Production is forecast at 34,470 tonnes of kernel, or 114,900 tonnes on an in-shell basis, 39% higher than in 2025. The expected range is 31,000 to 38,000 tonnes of kernel. The total bearing area is 65,300 hectares. The figures are as of 11 September 2026.
This is Demeter's first national forecast of Portugal almond production. The most recent forecast and all historical prints are always available on the
# The forecast at a glance
| Measure | Kernel | In-shell |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast production, 2026/27 | 34,470 t | 114,900 t |
| Expected range | 31,000–38,000 t | 103,000–127,000 t |
| Production in 2025 (INE, provisional) | 24,820 t | 82,700 t |
| Change on 2025 | +39% | +39% |
| Area at bearing age | Hectares |
|---|---|
| Modern irrigated orchards | 30,000 |
| Other orchard classes | 35,300 |
| Total | 65,300 |
Kernel figures are in-shell tonnage at a crack-out ratio of 30%. The 2025 kernel figure applies the same ratio to the INE in-shell total.
# Track record
The method has been applied to every season since 2017. Each year is forecast out of sample: the model is calibrated without that year, then asked to predict it.
| Year | Modern irrigated orchards at bearing age (thousand ha) | Other orchard classes at bearing age (thousand ha) | Actual, INE (thousand t in-shell) | Actual (thousand t kernel) | Forecast (thousand t in-shell) | Forecast (thousand t kernel) | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 23.1 | 6.9 | 23.1 | 6.9 | +0.2% |
| 2018 | 0.7 | 20.7 | 17.1 | 5.1 | 20.6 | 6.2 | +20.4% |
| 2019 | 2.8 | 22.1 | 32.3 | 9.7 | 32.4 | 9.7 | +0.2% |
| 2020 | 4.2 | 23.5 | 31.6 | 9.5 | 36.9 | 11.1 | +16.9% |
| 2021 | 9.1 | 26.9 | 41.5 | 12.5 | 46.2 | 13.9 | +11.5% |
| 2022 | 12.5 | 30.0 | 46.2 | 13.9 | 45.8 | 13.7 | −1.0% |
| 2023 | 21.4 | 32.9 | 69.5 | 20.9 | 60.6 | 18.2 | −12.8% |
| 2024 | 24.3 | 33.8 | 90.8 | 27.2 | 88.2 | 26.5 | −2.8% |
| 2025 | 30.3 | 35.8 | 82.7 | 24.8 | 90.4 | 27.1 | +9.3% |
| 2026 | 30.0 | 35.3 | — | — | 114.9 | 34.5 | — |
In-shell figures are converted to kernel using a crack-out ratio of 30%.
The mean absolute error is 3,700 tonnes in-shell, or 8.3%.
These errors are for forecasts made with the full season observed. Forecasts issued earlier in the season carry wider uncertainty.
The 2026 forecast is published under model v2, which has a mean absolute error of 10.5%. The track record above reflects model v3, with a mean absolute error of 8.3%.
The forecast draws on the Demeter Almond Season Index (DASI), among numerous other sources. You can register to receive headline DASI publications here.
