Demeter has released its almond production forecast for Spain for the 2026/27 marketing year. Production is forecast at 172,050 tonnes of kernel, or 573,500 tonnes on an in-shell basis, 26% higher than in 2025. The expected range is 157,000 to 187,000 tonnes of kernel. The total area at bearing age is 699,000 hectares. The figures are as of 28 September 2026.
This is Demeter's first national forecast of Spain almond production. The methodology notes describe how the forecast is constructed and validated, and set out its track record since 2015.
# The forecast at a glance
| Measure | Kernel | In-shell |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast production, 2026/27 | 172,050 t | 573,500 t |
| Expected range | 157,000–187,000 t | 524,000–623,000 t |
| Production in 2025 (MAPA, provisional) | 136,590 t | 455,300 t |
| Change on 2025 | +26% | +26% |
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Area at bearing age | 699,000 ha |
Kernel figures are in-shell tonnage at a crack-out ratio of 30%. The 2025 kernel figure applies the same ratio to the in-shell total published by the Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación (MAPA).
# Season commentary
Three things account for most of the increase on 2025. Orchards planted during the expansion of 2016 to 2020 continue to mature, which adds around 6% to productive capacity. The water year to mid-March was the wettest of the last twelve in almost every producing province. Growing conditions from bloom to kernel fill were favourable on balance.
Frosts in late March and April were registered by ground stations in several producing provinces. They did not reach the level at which past frosts have reduced the national crop. Local losses have been reported, notably in the uplands of Granada and Almería, and are the main downside risk to the forecast.
# Track record
The method has been applied to every season since 2015. Each year is forecast out of sample: the model is calibrated without that year, then asked to predict it.
| Year | Area at bearing age (thousand ha, MAPA) | Actual, MAPA (thousand t in-shell) | Actual (thousand t kernel) | Forecast (thousand t in-shell) | Forecast (thousand t kernel) | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 488 | 211.1 | 63.3 | 203.1 | 60.9 | −3.8% |
| 2016 | 499 | 198.8 | 59.6 | 198.1 | 59.4 | −0.3% |
| 2017 | 526 | 243.9 | 73.2 | 242.0 | 72.6 | −0.8% |
| 2018 | 556 | 339.0 | 101.7 | 254.0 | 76.2 | −25.1% |
| 2019 | 587 | 340.4 | 102.1 | 310.0 | 93.0 | −8.9% |
| 2020 | 600 | 421.6 | 126.5 | 364.8 | 109.4 | −13.5% |
| 2021 | 620 | 371.5 | 111.4 | 309.6 | 92.9 | −16.7% |
| 2022 | 634 | 263.6 | 79.1 | 309.9 | 93.0 | +17.6% |
| 2023 | 647 | 297.7 | 89.3 | 310.8 | 93.3 | +4.4% |
| 2024 | 663 | 372.9 | 111.9 | 356.2 | 106.9 | −4.5% |
| 2025 | 674 | 455.3 | 136.6 | 454.8 | 136.4 | −0.1% |
| 2026 | 699 | — | — | 573.5 | 172.1 | — |
In-shell figures are converted to kernel using a crack-out ratio of 30%. Area at bearing age is MAPA's official series to 2025. The 2026 figure is measured from Demeter's orchard base.
The mean absolute error is 29,200 tonnes in-shell, or 8.7%.
These errors are for forecasts made with the full season observed. Forecasts issued earlier in the season carry wider uncertainty.
The 2026/27 forecast is published under model v1, the same specification as the track record above.
The forecast draws on the Demeter Almond Season Index (DASI), among numerous other sources. You can register to receive headline DASI publications here.
